Estimated MRR
$2.11M
Centre of the band
Estimated ARR
$25.31M
Twelve times the centre
Band width
8×
Ceiling over centre
The band
$266.7K$2.11M$16.67M
Global spend, from EU share (24.5%)$81,633
Ad spend as share of revenue3.9%
Revenue = global spend ÷ that share$2,109,371
This is the model the index runs, not a simplified version of it. The band is wide because both divisions are genuinely uncertain — the EU share alone carries about 55% of the variance, and no query can narrow it because a US campaign is not zero in the archive, it is invisible.
What it actually computes
- Divide by the EU/UK share of global budget — the archive covers EU delivery only, so a US campaign is invisible rather than zero.
- Divide again by what that kind of product spends on ads as a share of revenue.
- A consumer mobile app spends about 35% of revenue on acquisition; a B2B SaaS spends about 4%. Using one number for both was the model’s largest ever error.
Where it stops
The EU share carries roughly 55% of the model’s variance and cannot be observed, only bounded. That is why the output is a range and why the range is wide.
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12,000+ products, priced from their own advertising, all of them under $500K a month — the range a small team can actually enter.